Bitcoin shows signs of weakness while Ripple's bank win fails to bolster XRP

The immediate prospects for bitcoin BTC$84,459.46 and the wider crypto market look bleak, with prices trading below key levels, according to some observers.

The largest cryptocurrency is trading below $80,000, less than its 50-day average in a sign of near-term weakness.

“Technical indicators suggest the downtrend is set to continue, as the market sinks further below its 50-day moving average and the resistance zones from May and September have failed to act as support,” Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, wrote in an email.

Kuptsikevich isn’t alone.

“The key support is the $80,000 zone – a break below that could open the door to $75,000, then $73,000,” Secure Digital Markets said in a daily note.

The Ontario-based firm noted that BTC spent two weeks between $80,000 and $86,000, and its 30-day range has compressed from 13% to 6%. A volatility squeeze of this kind often ends with a sharp move, it said.

As for volatility, options traders on decentralized platform Derive are pricing in some movement around Wednesday’s Fed meeting, though nothing out of the ordinary.

“An at-the-money options strategy covering Friday’s expiry costs roughly $2.4K, reflecting a move of about 3% in either direction by then. The average daily move expected around the US midterm elections is slightly lower, at approximately 2.1%,” Derive told CoinDesk.

In the meantime, Ripple, a fintech company that uses XRP to facilitate cross-border transactions, received the go-ahead from a U.S. regulator to start its own national trust bank. This could lead to a stronger institutional custody infrastructure. Even so, XRP has lost 0.5% since midnight UTC.

“The charter itself creates no requirement to buy XRP. The distinction matters with XRP funding at 0.81bp and dollar OI up 3.1%,” analysts at Marex said.

The takeaway is that headlines that sound bullish may not be. Stay alert!

What’s trending

• Ripple gets a final go-ahead to launch its own U.S. national trust bank (CoinDesk): Ripple, a fintech company building blockchain and crypto for cross-border transactions, received approval to run a specialized bank under U.S. federal supervision.
• Now is the time to accumulate bitcoin, Galaxy says (CoinDesk): “We think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance,” Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, wrote in an investors’ note.
• European shares dip as HSBC results weigh on banks ahead of Big Tech earnings (Reuters): European shares slipped, dragged down by banking stocks, ​after disappointing results from HSBC, while investors turned cautious ahead of U.S. tech earnings and central bank meetings that could shape near-term interest-rate outlook.
• U.S. Treasury yields are flat ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting (CNBC): U.S. bond yields were broadly unchanged ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting and a spate of economic data releases.

Today’s signal

The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format since July.

The cryptocurrency is trading close to $1.25, which has been a major support since mid-September. In other words, buyers have stepped in around this price several times.

If that happens again, it could signal that sellers are done pushing the price down and that XRP may be ready to move higher. If the level breaks, it would be a warning sign that buyers are no longer defending the level, potentially leading to a deeper slide.